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The percentage of Stocks in a Bullish Upswing for all Categories are
26% of the Dow Jones is on an Upswing
24% of the S&P 100 is on an Upswing
29% of the Nasdaq 100 is on an Upswing
25% of all Three Indexes Top Holdings is on an Upswing
The Major Market Swing is still Very Bearish. When this starts to change be on the lookout for a possible bounce to the upside
The Market Breadth is still WEAK, If the breadth continues to stay WEAK the Major indexes may continue to sell off, but it is at levels where a bounce to the upside can occur
The Adv.-Decl, Issues Diff Green Line is still below Zero. This is showing weakness
The Important thing, for now, is that the Major Indexes all found support at the 50Day, 150-day, or 200-Day MA's. Which are long-term Key Moving Averages. This is where the market could bounce to the upside
We spoke about the possibility of the 150-Day MA and the 200-Day MA holding as Support. If the market can not break below these Key MA's then it's possible that we can see higher stock prices, But if Prices break Below and close below these Long-Term Moving Averages then lower prices can be coming
The bottom line is that if prices bounce off the long-term Key Moving Averages the 50Day, 150-day, or 200-Day MA's. Then we will look at the downward Trending shorter-term 5-Day, 9-Day, and 21-Day MA's as possible resistance. If the Price gets rejected at these shorter-term Moving Averages then we will look for a possible move back to the Long-Term Moving Averages
A picture is worth a Thousand Words
Charts updated as of Wednesday 2-27-2023
Below is a Daily Chart of the Dow Jones Index with Key Moving Averages.
Notice the downward trending 5-Day (white), 9-Day (green), and 21-Day (yellow) MA's. The (21-Day MA is now starting to cross below the 50-Day MA. We call this a Silver Cross and it is showing short-term bearish Momentum.
The Price is just below the 150-Day MA (Blue) and the Price had a bearish Key Reversal day. Watch the 200-Day MA as a possible area of Support
Below is a Daily Chart of the S&P 500 Index With the Key Moving Averages. Notice the
downward trending 5-Day (white), 9-Day (green line), and 21-Day (yellow line) MA's.
The Price is sitting on the 63-Day MA (dashed line), 150-Day MA (blue line), and 50-Day MA (red line). We need to see prices break below these Key Moving Averages which are acting as possible support. Then watch 200-Day MA as the next area of possible support. The price also has a Key Reversal day
Below is a Daily Chart of the Nasdaq Index With the Key Moving Averages. Notice the downward trending 5-Day (white), 9-Day (green line), and 21-Day (yellow line) MA's.
The Price is just below the 150-Day MA (blue line), and just above the 200-Day MA (Cyan line), and 63-Day (dashed line). We need to see prices break below the 200-Day and 63-Day MA's which are acting as possible support. The price also has a Key Reversal day
There is no guarantee that the Market will sell off and we will have a profitable short trade but this is definitely not the time that we would want to be Long Stock. The Price is below the Downward Trending 5, 9, and 21-Day MA's.
Be Careful
Economic Reports
Wednesday, March 1, 2023 @ 9:45 am Manufacturing PMI (Feb) @ 10:00 am ISM Manufacturing Employment (Feb) @ 10:00 am ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) @ 10:00 am ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Feb) @ 2:00 pm FOMC Meeting Minutes (This could be a market mover) Thursday, March 2, 2023
@ 8:30 am Continuing Jobless Claims (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4)
@ 8:30 am Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4)
@ 10:50 am FOMC Member Fed Waller (This could be a market mover)
Friday, March 3, 2023
@ 9:45 am S&P Global Composite PMI (This could be a market mover)
@ 9:45 am Services PMI (Feb) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Feb) (This could be a market mover)
@10:00 am ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Feb)
@ 10:00 am ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Feb)
@ 11:45 am FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
@ 3:30 am CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions
@ 3:30 am CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions
The Bulls and Bears are fighting for control right now, But the Major Market Indexes are at Key Levels on the Chart.
This can change quickly. Be Careful
Thank You
Rod
BTA
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